When Tony Abbott made his, ‘More Jakarta and less Geneva’ speech
in 2013, it was seen as heralding a new era in Australia-Indonesia relations; a
reflection of views held by Paul Keating in 1994 when the then Prime Minister
said, ‘No country is more important to Australia than
Indonesia.’
With Indonesia’s economy poised to pass that of Australia within
ten years, a 245 million population including over 90 million young people and
an annual growth rate of 7-8% it made sense to acknowledge that Indonesia was
critically important to Australia, not only in trade and business but also for
our long-term security and regional stability.
Today, the relationship between Australia and Indonesia is at an
all-time low; ministers hardly talk to each other, with many Australians seeing
their Indonesian neighbours through the eyes of suspicion, whilst
Indonesians see Australia through the eyes of
mendiamkan - or roughly translated, to just leave in peace or
silence.
Perhaps the biggest – yet forgivable – mistake made by Mr Abbott
when he made the ‘More Jakarta’ reference, was to assume that the acknowledgment
of Jakarta’s importance to Australia would be reciprocated in the longer-term.
With Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono – affectionately known as SBY - as President of
Indonesia, and his articulate and savvy Foreign Minister, Dr Marty Natalegawa
directing regional and foreign policy, there was every reason to assume that
both nations had a genuine and critical interest in being good and trusting
neighbours.
SBY’s son had studied at Curtin University in Perth and the
President and Foreign Minister had a good understanding of Australia Both were
highly respected and admired by the international community, despite the huge
disappointment in SBY’s performance domestically throughout
Indonesia.
Another of Mr Abbott’s memorable quotes in 2013 was that the
Federal Coalition was a government whose relationship with Indonesia would be
one of, ‘no surprises and (one that was based upon) mutual
trust’.
Then the spying scandal broke in late 2013, resulting in a strong
and angry reaction from Jakarta. There was more to come, with the first boat
turn-back taking place in 2014.
Australia ‘got out of jail’ on both issues thanks to SBY’s desire
to complete his term as Indonesia’s president with the bi-lateral relationship
with Australia on good terms, and also that boat turn-backs were – apart from
not being particularly big news in Indonesia – actually helping Jakarta control
the inflow of Middle-Eastern asylum seekers who were using Indonesia as the
primary transit point.
As the 2014 elections in Indonesia drew closer it became clear
that this comfortable relationship was going to change, and with the emergence
of a new President, Joko Widodo, an uncertain and far
more fragile era had arrived.
Jokowi, as he is widely known
throughout Indonesia, was elected with a strong mandate from the people, but
that is about as far as the good news went given that he had little support from
the national parliament and even less support from
his own party, the PDI-P, headed by former president Megawati
Sukarnoputri.
Suddenly our Foreign Minister couldn’t pick-up the phone to ‘Pak
Marty’ anymore, as we saw only too clearly during the Bali Nine execution
debacle, and Mr Abbott, with his shirt–fronting Anglo Saxon style
of leadership was coming face-to-face with a new Indonesian leader who was very
Javanese: Reserved, gracious but with a long memory.
It was no surprise to the Abbott
government, that the Jokowi leadership would reveal a more conservative,
nationalistic, and inward looking Indonesia. What wasn’t predicted however, was
just how inexperienced and politically weak the
Jokowi Government would be, and how soon after the election this would test the
bi-lateral relationship with Australia.
Today, the signs are worrying. Indonesia’s economy has slowed to
around 4.9%; hardly enough to provide enough jobs for students entering the
workforce. The skills-match between students and the work place needs are also
poorly aligned. Protection of the agriculture sector – that employs over 45
million people – will ensure the continuance of mainly subsistence farming and a
future challenge for Indonesia to even feed itself.
The failure of the President to protect the Corruption Eradication
Commission, or KPK, is disturbing. The KPK represents Indonesia’s only hope of
really pushing-on with the critical issue of addressing corruption, and a
weakened KPK is another worrying development The emergence of the military into
civilian life and a National Police that seems to be completely disinterested in
the directions or views of the President, all add to the concerns about the
Jokowi leadership.
Meanwhile, at a grass-roots level, there is still widespread
support throughout Indonesia for their president, and business people from North
Asia seem to be embracing the new environment better than most Western
countries. Indonesia is looking north, not south, for investment and trade
relations.
Therefore, the temptation must be great for our
government to simply allow the bi-lateral relationship to ‘bumble’ along for
now. But here lies the dilemma for Australia: We probably need Indonesia more
than Indonesia needs us at present. Indonesia is home to the world’s largest
Muslim population and it is also democratically
stable, reinforcing Australia’s strategic interest for Indonesia to continue to
progress economically and politically.
The rise-and rise of
China in the region demands close co-operation between Indonesia and Australia,
and the emergence of ISIS-backed terrorist groups within Indonesia pose a
serious threat to Australia and the one million Australians who visit Bali every
year. The close relations between the Australian Federal Police that was
developed post-Bali bombings with their Indonesia
counterparts (POLRI) will need to be maintained and cultivated to ensure both
countries keep their citizens safe from the scourge of ISIS. Most of Australia's
resource and manufactured exports pass through Indonesian territorial waters to
our north; something we conveniently overlook as we
see the Indonesian navy as potential enemies rather than
partners.
‘More Jakarta and less Geneva’ was an important vision for the
incoming Abbott government, but with the emergence of a new, nationalistic and a more Asia-focused government in Indonesia, we can no longer
assume that our mission to fully engage with our close neighbour will be
reciprocated.
Ross
Taylor AM
is the President of the Perth-based Indonesia Institute
(Inc)
July 2015
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